Can an election be won on social media? That question is being increasingly asked in France, before the first round of the presidential election.
The French are very much online now: 75% of people surf the web while 25 million have Facebook accounts, out of a total population of 66 million, of whom 43 million are voters.
With the emergence of the Social TV phenomenon, one can see TV and social media now complement each other. Ever since the Socialist Party's primaries, political TV broadcasts have caused a torrent of comments on Twitter, as TV audiences joined up on this huge virtual couch to minutely analyze politicians' statements. TV broadcasts words uttered by candidates while the social media host chats about the candidates' words. And it's on these social networks that judgement on the candidates' credibility will be passed. This is because their promises and the figures they bandy about are fact-checked in real time, by journalists and experts, ensuring a simultaneous and enlightened subtitle service that underlines the politicians' rolling spiel.
So the answer to my opening question: "Can an election be won on social media?" is: in France in 2012, most probably "no". However, the question: "Can social media predict the name of the next French president?" calls for a positive answer.
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