The outlook for print advertising remains particularly gloomy, at least in the U.S., with ZenithOptimedia predicting continuing declines in 2011, 2012 and 2013.
Newspapers will undoubtedly get the worst of it, with ZO forecasting consecutive annual revenue declines of 8.5%, 8% and 8% in 2011, 2012 and 2013, respectively.
Combining these predictions with print advertising data from the Newspaper Association of America, that implies that total print newspaper ad revenues will fall from $22.8 billion in 2010 to $20.9 billion in 2011, $19.2 billion in 2012, and $17.7 billion in 2013. That represents just 37% of the peak print ad revenue figure of $47.4 billion in 2005, also per the NAA.
American magazines appear to be somewhat better off in the latest ZO forecast, but publishers won't be breaking out the champagne any time soon. After a tepid recovery in 2010, ZO has total ad revenues flat in 2011, followed by consecutive declines of 2% per year in 2012 and 2013.
Radio is set for modest growth of 2% in 2011, 2.1% in 2012 and 2.9% in 2013, although (like other media tracked by ZO) these gains will be somewhat diminished by inflation. The Internet is poised for double-digit annual growth for the foreseeable future.
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