Saturday, June 11

What Multitasking Consumers Mean for Marketers

Marketers need to gain a better understanding of multitasking behavior to effectively plan advertising. The term "multitasking" has its roots in the computer industry. It describes the way computers handle multiple tasks by sharing processor resources. Consumers choose some, but not all, of their media exposure; in particular, they may be subjected to "environmental" media content in public places such as restaurants and bars, retail settings, medical offices, etc.

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Thursday, June 9

LinkedIn Most Valuable

Facebook remains the most frequently used social network, but LinkedIn has become the most valued, according to a recent study by ROI Research and sponsored by Performics. Twitter was next, followed by YouTube, and MySpace. Facebook remains the only social networking site that is declining in importance.

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U.S. Online Ad Spending To Hit $31 Billion In 2011

U.S online advertising revenue this year will surge 20% to $31.3 billion on the strength of robust display ad spending, according to the latest forecast from eMarketer. That's a jump from the market research firm's prior estimate from the end of 2010, projecting online ad sales would increase just 10% to $28.5 billion in 2011.

Last year, online video increased 40% to 1.4 billion, according to the Interactive Advertising Bureau. Spending on ordinary banner ads is expected to continue growing in 2011 as well, rising from $6.2 billion to $7.6 billion. After rising just 4% in 2009, online display spending bounced back last year with a 24% gain to reach $9.9 billion, accounting for 38% of total online ad revenue. The eMarketer forecast predicts that growth level would be maintained through 2011.

The Internet will account for nearly 20% of all U.S. major media ad dollars spent this year, up from 17% in 2010. By 2015, online advertising is expected to make up nearly 28% of all media ad spending. By comparison, TV ad dollars will hover around 38% for the next five years.

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Texting Cools Off

Growth in the volume of text messaging is slowing sharply, just as new threats emerge to that lucrative source of wireless carrier profits. While U.S. cellphone users sent and received more than 1 trillion texts in the second half of 2010, according to CTIA, a wireless industry trade group, that was just an 8.7% increase from the prior six months. It was the slimmest gain since texting exploded last decade.

Text traffic will come under more pressure in the months ahead. This week, Apple Inc. showed off an application that will allow iPhone and iPad owners to bypass carriers and send text messages over the Internet to other people with Apple devices.

Read more at the WSJ

Internet Forecasting

Interest in internet forecasting was sparked by a paper published in 2009 by Hal Varian, Google’s chief economist. He found that the peaks and troughs in the volume of Google searches for certain products, such as cars and holidays, preceded fluctuations in sales of those products. Other researchers have shown that searches for job-related terms are a good predictor of unemployment rates and that mentions of political candidates on Twitter correlate with electoral outcomes.

Johan Bollen of Indiana University Bloomington (and his team) examined all the data for the autumn and winter of 2008, they found that Twitter users’ collective mood swings coincided with national events. Happiness shot up around Thanksgiving, for example.

Dr Bollen’s algorithm, which he described in a paper published in February in the Journal of Computational Science, has been licensed to Derwent Capital Markets, a hedge fund based in London. Derwent will use it to help guide the investments made with a £25m ($41m) fund that the firm hopes to launch in the next few months. Other funds are rumoured to be using similar tricks already. WiseWindow, a marketing firm based in Irvine, California, uses social-media activity to forecast demand for products.

Read more at The Economist

Report: Major Shortage in Local Reporting

There is a shortage of in-depth local journalism needed to hold government agencies, schools and businesses accountable, the federal agency that regulates television broadcasters concludes in a new report. The dearth of reporting comes despite an abundance of news outlets in today's multimedia landscape, the report says.

The report says staffing levels at daily newspapers have fallen by more than 25 percent since 2001. "A shortage of reporting manifests itself in invisible ways: stories not written, scandals not exposed, government waste not discovered, health dangers not identified in time, local elections involving candidates about whom we know little," the report says.

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Wednesday, June 8

Paywalls are Still a Bad Idea

The metered approach can have benefits for papers that implement it, by boosting revenue and appealing to advertisers. But those positives can be more than outweighed by the negatives of a paywall, particularly for smaller newspapers — the main one being that a wall creates an opportunity for free competitors, of which there are a growing number.

The amount of inventory sold to advertisers varies widely. In the U.S. market, the “sell-trough” [sic] ratio is about 60 percent, but it can go as low as 30 percent on some markets. This means the media can sustain some loss in page views due to the implementation of the metered system without losing ad revenue.

I hear that the brass at the New York Times expect its paywall to be revenue neutral — the amount of money they expect to bring in from online subscriptions is pretty much equal to the amount of money they expect to lose from online advertising.

The biggest flaw from a business perspective, particularly for smaller newspapers, is that walling up your content is an invitation to free competitors — from AOL’s Patch.com and Huffington Post to Mainstreet Connect and Neighborhoodr and Topix.net — to come and take away your readers.

Newspapers like the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal can make paywalls work because their content is extremely focused and (arguably) more valuable than that produced by free competitors. The New York Times is hoping it falls into that category as well, although as a mass-market newspaper, that conclusion is more of a gamble. But if you are a small-town or even medium-sized metro paper, walling off your content could be a recipe for disaster, by giving your more nimble competitors exactly what they are looking for: readers eager for a free alternative.

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Monday, June 6

Analyzing the metered model

About half of the audience (for online media) is composed of casual users dropping by less than 3 times a month, or sent by search engines; 25% come more than 10 times a month.

News organization have implemented (paid) systems in different gradations. At the far end of the spectrum, we have the Times of London: no access to the site without first paying. That’s is the riskiest option. The site ends up losing 90% of its audience (and the related advertising revenue) but hopes to offset the loss by gathering enough online subscribers. Others choose to give some of the site for free and put the most valuable contents — sometimes the digital version of the print edition — behind a paywall. This doesn’t always make economical sense as many readers are happy enough with the free content part. The most successful paywall implementation has been the Wall Street Journal: it now has more than 1m paid subscribers, but it took 10 years to get there. The third option involves a metered system. The principle is simple: once you’ve seen a certain number of stories in a given period of time, you need to become a paid subscriber to keep viewing the site. Some newspapers have been quite successful at deploying such a metered system.

Read more here

Game consoles under attack

The dominance of games played with a console system and TV is under assault by new mobile and social gaming. A third of Americans have a smartphone capable of playing addictive games such as Angry Birds, according to Nielsen. Nearly 20% play social-network games such as CityVille and FarmVille, NPD Group says. The rapid adoption rate of casual games now outpaces traditional console games, and U.S. spending is expected to exceed $3 billion this year, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers. Will stay-at-home console games be left in the dust? Not likely. For starters, console games still dominate, while mobile and social online games are a fringe of the $25 billion game industry. And this year, spending on console games is expected to grow an estimated 5% or more.

The average video game player is 37 years old; the average buyer of computer and video games is 41, according to Ipsos MediaCT research for the group. Women are 42% of gamers, up from 38% in 2007, while 29% of gamers are over the age of 50.

Read more at USA Today.